Precision vs Power: The US Hypersonic Weapons Challenge

Learn how the U.S. is prioritizing precision over power in hypersonic weapon development amid rising threats from Russia and China.

The United States is ramping up efforts to develop hypersonic weapons, responding to rising threats from Russia and China. However, unlike its adversaries, the U.S. faces a unique challenge—its hypersonic weapons must prioritize pinpoint accuracy over brute force. Why? These weapons are designed to carry conventional warheads, making precision their defining characteristic.

This need for accuracy makes U.S. systems technically more complex to develop than the nuclear-armed hypersonic systems deployed by Russia and China, according to a new Congressional Research Service report released on December 2. The report, titled Hypersonic Weapons: Background and Issues for Congress, highlights the strategic and financial hurdles in America’s hypersonic race.

Unlike their competitors, U.S. hypersonic weapons programs have yet to reach full acquisition. The Department of Defense (DOD) is still testing prototypes, exploring concepts, and identifying the best designs before committing to production. While this cautious approach ensures thorough evaluation, it also reflects challenges in defining clear mission requirements.

The lack of established mission requirements has led to contrasting views within the DOD about the scale, costs, and quantities of hypersonic weapons needed. The report suggests that without a unified strategy, Congress may struggle to allocate funds effectively or prioritize between enabling technologies, test infrastructure, and missile defense systems.

The financial implications of hypersonic weaponry are substantial. According to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessment, hypersonic weapons could cost one-third more than ballistic missiles of comparable range, but without significantly enhanced survivability unless deployed against advanced air defenses.

For FY 2025, the DOD requested $6.9 billion for offensive hypersonic weapon development and $182.3 million for defense programs. However, critics argue that these investments may lack direction without clearly defined goals, making it difficult to evaluate whether funds are being appropriately distributed.

Hypersonic weapons are not without controversy. Their high speeds and unpredictable flight paths can create uncertainty about their intended targets, potentially leading to miscalculations or unintended escalations during conflicts. This risk is further amplified by the ambiguity of whether these weapons carry nuclear or conventional warheads.

In response to such risks, experts have suggested measures like expanding New START agreements, negotiating multilateral arms control treaties, and increasing transparency with other nations to reduce tensions. However, with countries like Russia and China advancing their programs, the U.S. faces mounting pressure to keep pace.

Several nations, including Russia and China, are actively deploying hypersonic systems:

• Russia: Deployed the Avangard, a nuclear-armed hypersonic glide vehicle, in 2019, and the Zircon cruise missile in 2024, capable of striking both land and sea-based targets.
• China: Operationalized the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle in 2020 and tested nuclear-capable prototypes like the Starry Sky-2.

In contrast, the U.S. is still refining its technology, working on multiple programs like the Navy’s CPS, the Army’s LRHW, and DARPA’s innovative projects. Advocates argue that while these weapons could serve as a deterrent, their utility depends on robust deployment strategies and technological readiness.

The U.S. has a unique opportunity to redefine the role of hypersonic weapons, focusing on precision and adaptability. While the absence of nuclear warheads adds a layer of complexity, it also underscores America’s commitment to strategic deterrence without escalation.

For hypersonics to succeed, experts emphasize the need for:

• Clear mission requirements to guide development and deployment.
• Investments in enabling technologies like space-based sensors and autonomous command systems.
• Collaboration with allies to build a cohesive defense strategy.

As Congress navigates oversight and funding decisions, it must weigh the balance between maintaining global leadership and ensuring fiscal responsibility.

The hypersonic race is as much about strategy as it is about speed. While Russia and China focus on nuclear capabilities, the U.S. is betting on accuracy and innovation to gain a competitive edge. The coming years will determine whether this approach positions America as a leader in hypersonics or leaves it playing catch-up in a rapidly evolving global landscape.