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Path of Least Cost Assuaging Public Protests in Jordan

nce again, events in Gaza are showing up in the form of indignant protests in Jordan that, if not properly handled, could lead to serious challenges for the Jordanian monarchy. Over the last few days, protestors against the ongoing genocide in Gaza have taken to Amman’s streets, specifically those around the Israeli embassy, calling on Jordan to abrogate its 1994 peace treaty with Israel. Many also have demanded opening “the border” to the West Bank. At various times since last October, security forces have accommodated protests in order to absorb the public anger over the Israeli onslaught on Gaza, but now security forces are beginning to lose their restraint and to arrest demonstrators and activists.

The Jordanian government is in a quandary over how to maintain a public posture of criticizing Israel’s conduct of the war while remaining on good terms with the United States—Jordan’s largest aid provider—and holding on to what has always been a cold peace with Israel. In January, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi was among a rare few Arab officials who publicly supported South Africa’s case of genocide against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Last November, Safadi announced that Jordan would not sign an energy-for-water agreement with Israel, and the government withdrew its ambassador from Tel Aviv in protest of the Israeli war on Gaza.

Jordan’s relations with the United States figure most prominently in the country’s calculations regarding what to do vis-à-vis Israel’s war on Gaza. In fact, it is in Washington that Jordan’s King Abdullah II finds a listening ear and a shoulder to cry on, despite the US commitment to Israel’s military superiority and to protecting Israel from criticism. King Abdullah’s close relationship with President Joe Biden and the Hashemite Kingdom’s friendly audience in the halls of Congress—which appropriates more than $1.5 billion in economic and military aid for the country every year—are irreplaceable privileges and cannot be lightly sacrificed.

Yet, despite care in Jordan about protecting close bilateral relations, the government finds that it must voice contrary views to those held by the Biden administration. In February, King Abdullah stood next to President Biden and decried the situation in Gaza, declaring that “[w]e need a lasting cease-fire now,” and that “[t]his war must end” just as the White House was still refusing even to utter the word “ceasefire.” Safadi’s support for the ICJ genocide case against Israel clearly contradics the American position that the lawsuit is “meritless, counterproductive, and completely without any basis in fact whatsoever,” according to White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby.

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