Jordanians of all walks of life have watched the relentless war in Gaza with deepening alarm. By latest count, at least 38,000 Palestinians have been killed, most of whom were civilians. As Israel’s assault continues, Jordanian government officials fear a further deterioration in Jordan’s own security, especially as a broader regional struggle between Israel and Iran seems to put Jordan too in its crosshairs. But the pressing issue for Jordanians, many of whom are of Palestinian descent, is not just a worry about traditional notions of security and defense. Rather, it is about the psychological toll on Jordanians of the heart-wrenching scenes in Gaza that amount to a daily and even hourly emotional strain. Despite the outrage Jordanians feel over the horrific events, there is a pervasive sense of inefficacy, of being unable to do anything to stop them.
Jordan’s government has been consistent in opposing the war since it began, but like all other governments, it has so far been unable to affect the outcome. In Jordanian streets, meanwhile, the Gaza war has revived Jordan’s diverse opposition movements, bringing protesters out in large numbers, at times clashing with authorities but at others aligning with the demands of the state itself for an end to the conflict. But many Jordanian opposition groups now operate in a setting that simultaneously involves more confrontation with the state through protests, while also attempting to maneuver within a new set of rules for parties and elections in advance of the September 2024 parliamentary vote.
Increasing Domestic and Regional Insecurity
The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza threatens to undermine Jordan’s domestic and regional goals, including intensifying the kingdom’s concerns over its control of its own borders. And the threats appear to be multiplying. Especially since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, Jordan has been worried about border insecurity, including drug smuggling rings (especially of Captagon), arms trafficking, and jihadist threats. But the Gaza war has deepened longstanding regime concerns about Iranian machinations in the region including the influence of Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and of Hezbollah forces operating in Syria.
The January drone attack by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on Tower 22, a US military base strategically close to both the Syrian and Iraqi borders, killed three US soldiers and alarmed Jordan. In April, concerns increased when Jordanian forces shot down a barrage of missiles and drones that Israel fired toward Israel. In response to these events, opposition forces and regime critics blasted the state for what they regarded as Jordanian aid for Israel’s defense. For Jordan’s military and government, the missile and drone intercepts aimed to eliminate threats to Jordanian airspace and hence to protect Jordan, not Israel. The Israeli-Iranian conflict, in short, affected Jordanian domestic politics, expanding the rift between government and opposition.
The Israeli-Iranian conflict affected Jordanian domestic politics, expanding the rift between government and opposition.
Even as the debate over Jordan’s role continued to rage internally, in May the government announced that it had foiled a plot by Hamas-sympathizing members of Jordan’s own Muslim Brotherhood to smuggle Iranian arms from Syria to Hamas. The Brotherhood vehemently denied any organizational role or disloyal intentions, claiming that only individual members may have engaged in this plot on their own with the intent of getting arms to Gaza, not to use them against Jordan. Last month, Jordanian authorities claimed to have foiled a bomb plot after they uncovered at least two caches of explosives near an American air base in the kingdom. Jordanian authorities charged that foreign actors, such as Hamas and Iran and its regional proxies were attempting to destabilize Jordan and threaten its national security. Even as each new event or crisis has seemed to push the state to clamp down in the name of security, new protests and new chants have emerged in the streets, challenging Jordan to change its policies and its international alliances.
Jordanian Policy Options and Relations with the United States
While Jordan and the United States remain close allies, they have differed profoundly in their approaches to the Gaza war. The Biden administration appears to see the war mostly in the context of supporting and defending Israel but is also keen to preserve its close relations with Jordan. Jordanians have seen the war in the context of the devastating impact on Palestinian civilians. The Gaza war has been an unmitigated disaster and represents an existential threat to the kingdom. This is not just a difference in tone, and it has yielded dramatically divergent policies toward the crisis.
Since the very start of the war, Jordan has consistently condemned the bombings of civilians as war crimes and the tragically high death toll in Gaza while calling for a ceasefire and civilian access to humanitarian aid. US officials tend to blame Hamas for the continued failure to reach a ceasefire, while Jordanian officials believe that Israel should also agree to a speedy truce. And as US policymakers talk about various “day after” scenarios for post-war Gaza, Jordan has consistently noted that is has no interest in any role that is detached from a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood—something the United States seems uninclined to pursue, despite the Biden administration’s rhetoric supporting a two-state solution. While the United States has focused on resolving the Gaza crisis, Jordan seeks a more comprehensive approach to a wider peace that would include Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem, and ending Israeli occupation.